BaruchPeople are notoriously poor ...Wed Jun 6, 2012 18:3922.214.171.124in estimating risk ... and probably any other probability. An actual quantum computing expert has taken all the visible atoms (each as a quantum computer) of the visible universe and the 13 billion years since the big bang, and calculated the odds from that ... and basically even bacteria would be unlikely at this point. Of course there could be more time, and more matter, or maybe quantum computing isn't right. But his calculation is quite a bit more realistic than anything a layman could do.
On the other hand, as far as predicting probabilities go, look how people mis-estimate the likelihood of a terrorist attack injury, vs an injury by lightning? Lightning at least in N America, is quite a bit more dangerous than terrorists.
- Hmmmmm.....a little confused clarym29, Wed Jun 6 11:00Is this analogy for or against the existence of god? Some people seem to be confused by seemingly huge odds. Some suggest that god has to exist since humankind could not result from random events;... more
- People are notoriously poor ... Baruch, Wed Jun 6 18:39