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Amadeus
Climate Change Intensity - Models Too Conservative...
Wed Jul 12, 2017 7:19am
104.129.196.114 (XFF: 198.36.89.22)

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-science-predictions-prove-too-conservative/

https://www.wunderground.com/climate/facts/models_are_reliable.asp

https://arstechnica.com/science/2011/07/climate-models-unable-to-predict-abrubt-changes/

https://phys.org/news/2016-04-worse-experts.html

The field of climate change study has increased in discipline and has continually refined their results and conclusions. They've continued to do good science. They are trying to warn us that we're in trouble. Real trouble.

It is time for global initiatives to mitigate our impact on the climate. It is past time.

I try to maintain my optimistic views. In the worst case scenario, I believe that humanity will survive. There will be much suffering, but humanity will survive. As for life on the planet, it has withstood a handful of major extinction events. I am confident that life will go on and eventually thrive. Compared to our potential as a species, however, the worst case outlines a tragic staggering of humanity. Tragic because it is avoidable. We just need to stop acting like children and take our medicine.

The best case scenario would be if suddenly, for whatever reason, all the global leaders and industrial leaders of the world woke up tomorrow and realized the gravity of the situation. Concerted, global efforts could still change our trajectory significantly and help us avoid needless suffering.

I think the most likely outcome is somewhere in between. We'll suffer, and we'll eventually get to that point of global, concerted efforts, but not in time to avoid devastating consequences. Hopefully in time to avoid the worst. And it may be that the process unites us as a species in a way that we have never known.

Many scientists view climate change as the possible Great Filter that could explain the Fermi Paradox - if intelligent life is out there, why haven't we seen evidence of it? Perhaps all civilizations such as ours run up against climate change and fail the test. As an optimist, I see this as a revolving door, not a filter. If we can get past it, we could find ourselves tempered and refined as a species, ready to undertake a new era of growth and evolution.

Amadeus

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