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Still no evidence of causality. He confuses FACT of warming
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:05am

which is weak, with CAUSE of warming, which is non-existent. Since 2001 there has been no significant warming. Of course, you must understand that the El Nino peaks in 1998 and 2016 are atypical and not evidence of anything in particular.


Again, I want to point out that the vertical scale is in tenths of a degree C. Then entire range is less than one degree C. As a reality check, you could not even measure the temperature of the room that you are in to within one degree C no matter how hard you tried, let alone to tenths of a degree. The noise level is clearly over 0.4 degrees. I wish to remind you of the famed "Emperor of China Fallacy" which states:

From pg812-1020 of Chapter 8 “Sufficiency, Ancillarity, And All That” of Probability Theory: The Logic of Science by E.T. Jaynes:

The classical example showing the error of this kind of reasoning is the fable about the height of the Emperor of China. Supposing that each person in China surely knows the height of the Emperor to an accuracy of at least ±1 meter, if there are N=1,000,000,000 inhabitants, then it seems that we could determine his height to an accuracy at least as good as

merely by asking each person’s opinion and averaging the results.

The absurdity of the conclusion tells us rather forcefully that the rule is not always valid, even when the separate data values are causally independent; it requires them to be logically independent. In this case, we know that the vast majority of the inhabitants of China have never seen the Emperor; yet they have been discussing the Emperor among themselves and some kind of mental image of him has evolved as folklore. Then knowledge of the answer given by one does tell us something about the answer likely to be given by another, so they are not logically independent. Indeed, folklore has almost surely generated a systematic error, which survives the averaging; thus the above estimate would tell us something about the folklore, but almost nothing about the Emperor.

The point being that it is folly to draw conclusions from data that fall outside the measurement noise level. Since the noise level is larger than the thing that we think that we are measuring, we don't know a damned thing about global temperatures since 2001. While we would like to know if humans are causing global warming, we don't. We cannot even determine with reasonable certainty that global warming is continuing past the year 2001.

There are many things that we would like to know but do not. This leads to a temptation to jump to conclusions. But it is very bad to base policy decisions on highly uncertain conclusions.


  • Well worth the read, especially for those who still deny climate change, deny that humans are causing... more
    • Still no evidence of causality. He confuses FACT of warming — DFM, Sun Nov 12 10:05am
    • human causation is unknown and probably unknowable. DFM
      • And that is from the expert analysts who are in the best position to know. How long do you suppose we would have to wait to act before we can't avoid catastrophic harm and suffering? Amadeus
        • I never said that we should ignore human activities that damage the environment. We should not wait to act, but not abandon Common Sense either. Common Sense tells us that putting out all of the... more
          • We Need...Amadeus, Thu Nov 9 12:59pm
   start viewing this as a global issue of life and death. For example, we could generate enough power to meet global needs and do it ALL via renewable sources. Not using today's systems,... more
            • You wrote: "For example, we could generate enough power to meet global needs and do it ALL via renewable sources." True. But NOT in less than a few decades. Total installed capacity is about 7 TW... more
              • You Are Often Stuck In Old Paradigms...Amadeus, Fri Nov 10 7:37am
                We must think outside the box we are stuck in. The box we are stuck in is what got us where we are, on pace to not make it. On pace to suffer horribly. That isn't hype. I get the idea that you are... more
                • would starve to death because of an unproven (and unprovable) hypothesis. DFM
                • You probably didn't notice ...Mondo Fuego™ , Fri Nov 10 10:04am
                  ... while you were prancing around in your pink booties, orange feathers and purple pom-poms, crying "The sky is falling, the sky is falling", but the US is already well on its way to renewables in... more
                  • one wondersTrish, Fri Nov 10 5:16pm
                    how you know so much about pink booties, orange feathers, and purple pompoms. Cross dressing now, Mondo?
                  • True, but France is spending SEVERAL times as much for electricity as we do per KWH. Most of the extra cost is hidden in heavily subsidized electric power rates. Like most government programs, their... more
                    • I agree with maintaining Trish, Fri Nov 10 5:14pm
                      while developing but putting off development because of whatever agenda isn't cool. Oil companies have more than made their profits and loaded pockets. If the same people were forward thinking, they... more
              • if that informationTrish, Fri Nov 10 4:21am
                and this article are true: Then it seems to me we should get our butts in gear.
                • Well, hop to it ...Mondo Fuego™, Fri Nov 10 11:13am
                  ... see what you can get done this weekend. :)
                  • that is easy.Trish, Fri Nov 10 5:11pm
                    Turn off lights and only use when necessary. monitor heat levels and keep them consistent. any car travel should not be a one-stop matter. preserve food and waste as little as possible. That is not... more
                    • I do all that ... so do most sane peopleMondo Fuego™, Sat Nov 11 7:33am
                      SO, what else does ol' Chicken Little Uru Mjolnir HammerDeus expect people to do? I get tired of his pious little rants about what "we" should do.
              • We prolly won't hear back from old Uru Mjolnir Hammer ...Mondo Fuego™ , Thu Nov 9 8:47pm
                ... on this. He will realize that his pink booties, orange feathers and purple pom-poms are insufficient to enable him to transcend reality and invoke puff the magic dragon to bring about a... more
            • So, now the mooch generation wants free power.Mondo Fuego™, Thu Nov 9 3:15pm
              Commie much?
          • I never hear jack from libnutz about deforestationMondo Fuego™, Thu Nov 9 12:46pm
            Their mentors and minders are radio silent on this key issue. They rail against fossil fuel and livestock as they collect their dividends from Exxon to buy New York strip steaks.
        • PoppyCockMondo Fuego™, Thu Nov 9 9:40am
          Key word: "Estimate" WTF do you propose? You run around here spouting off like an idiot, acting like you are the sole authority on just about everything, and clueless as to what to do about anything.
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