Models are already saying another Cat 4
Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:25pm

It's already a category 2.
Irma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model
guidance since yesterday. Consequently, it stayed longer over the
warmer ocean temperatures away from the drier air to the north,
possibly allowing the rapid strengthening. Irma should move over
cooler waters tomorrow with some increase in mid-level dry air, so
hopefully the hurricane's intensity will level off by then. In a
few days, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters with light
shear shown by all of the model guidance. This should promote
further strengthening of Irma, and the NHC forecast shows an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane next week
, similar to the
solutions provided by the HWRF and the ECMWF models. The intensity
forecast is raised considerably from the previous one due to initial
trends, and is on the high end of the guidance at long range.

This far out, track models are notoriously unreliable, but at the moment, I'd say North or South Carolina.

Hopefully the Bermuda-Azores High will be weak and Irma will swing north into the Atlantic.

  • Long range forecasts show a high probability of this hitting the South East, Gulf Coast area with another major system.
    • It's a big to do about not much.PH👁👁EY, Sun Sep 10 10:55pm
      Such a hype! Granted this storm did mow down some islands. But a category three is not going to huff and puff too much. We are getting off eady like. It could have been steered into the gulf and... more
      • It tracked as predicted but weakened significantlyEx-News Junkie, Mon Sep 11 1:49pm
        Last night the wind speeds were less than half of what they were when Irma hit the Caribbean.
        • You know that chemical pack that freezes for coolers?PH✈️✈️EY, Tue Sep 12 8:41am
          That stuff ( for want of a more scientific term) can be sprayed by jet aircraft into a hurricane to cool down the temperature. A category 5 can be reduced to a 4 and 3 just by this method. Indeed... more
          • would only increase the intensity of the storm. Given your base claim is absurd, what follows is also more than likely complete fabrication. They have used dry ice for clearing of fog over runways... more
            • No doubt you are a volunteer firefighter!🔥PH🐉🐉EY, Tue Sep 12 9:11pm
              And I suppose a rain storm over a forest fire will inflame the unruly beast? You know the science better than the Navy and Air Force. You know more than NOAA and NASA. My thought is dump enough of... more
              • I don't know why you believe babble is effective.HeavyHemi, Wed Sep 13 1:28am
                You said nothing to counter the simple fact that cooling the TOP of a Hurricane would actually INCREASE it's power. This isn't magic, you can look that up online. They are heat engines. They draw... more
                • Why don't you tuck your tail between your legs PH😜😜EY, Thu Sep 14 9:32am
                  and admit you do not know of what you claim you think you know but do not. Hmmmm? The visual evidence is quite clear in the attached 7 minute video of the weather psychopaths hitting Jose to knock it ... more
                  • Why would I lie to you?HeavyHemi, Thu Sep 14 3:26pm
                    I clearly have a far better grasps of the facts and science than you do with your kooky utterly unscientific and devoid of fact conspiracy claims. You're an insulting ignorant troll. It's your thing... more
                    • Did I say that? No!PH🙄🙄EY, Thu Sep 14 10:40pm
                      Are you avoiding ignorance about weather manipulation. The subject is not about a lie. The issue is what it is. Deal with it.
                • You believe what you want in your simplistic brain.PH🌪🌪EY, Wed Sep 13 11:55am
                  Just take a look at Jose. The techno terrorist decided to destroy it. Same trajectory as Irma. But suddenly it bounces backwards, loses a lot of power, regains, loses it again, heads northeast. Very... more
                  • Repeating your nonsese is repeating nonsense.HeavyHemi, Wed Sep 13 7:38pm
                    Indeed, your claims matter exactly zero in relation to factual science. I wonder how minds like yours seem to ALWAYS believe there's a conspiracy behind what they (you) don't understand. You might as ... more
                    • Yes your Majesty.. PH🐀🐀EY, Wed Sep 13 7:56pm
                      Yes, your Emminence, excellency, bwana. Dismissed from court. I understand that you do not understand the evidence by others a lot smarter than your burger flipper pay grade. Good, don't respond. It... more
          • What makes you think that the "stuff"Sprout, Tue Sep 12 9:32am
            you are referring to is somehow practical over a large geographic area when dry ice is not?
            • Operation Cirrus, 1947 (nm)PH🙄🙄EY, Thu Sep 14 9:36am
            • I have read the "stuff" is of less transport volume.PH🙊🙈🙉EY, Tue Sep 12 9:14pm
              And works well for large disbursements. Of course there is nothing about its toxicity to marine life, trees, lakes, and flesh.
              • Yet that "stuff" has nowhere near theSprout, Wed Sep 13 9:45am
                specific heat of dry ice. Look it up.
                • I have no intention of going technical.PH👁👁EY, Wed Sep 13 12:07pm
                  And you are not in the same league as those bright lucid Luciferians who work diligently 24/7 for their masters to create techno-terrorism. Do I know what makes dry ice "hot?" Apparently you have... more
                  • Specific heat...Sprout, Wed Sep 13 2:08pm
                    Specific heat is the amount of heat in calories that are required to increase the temperature of one gram of material by one degree C. Water is quite high at a 1. Most other materials are lower.... more
                    • Your efforts to explain are appreciated. PH👹👹EY, Wed Sep 13 3:14pm
                      Commendable. But this information is of no use to me though it's interesting. You and others are so busy falling upon your inculcations from high school that you miss the BIG PICTURE. I shall... more
        • Definitely a fortunate drop in intensity...Sprout, Mon Sep 11 2:14pm
          It should reduce structural damage significantly. And hopefully reduce surge heights quite a bit as well.
      • Wanna tell THEM that the pummeling rain, brutal winds, and floods aren't really happened to them?
        • What brutal winds?PH👁👁EY, Mon Sep 11 12:05am
          The last I checked the wind was blowing at 32 mph in Key West.
          • Several stations reportedPikes, Mon Sep 11 12:30am
            100mph sustained wind, with gusts to 145mph. Not the strongest- SS3, but still serious. Irma set other sustained wind records earlier before grazing Cuba. Its Florida landfall and first hours were... more
            • Very strong winds struck San Franciso.PH🌪💨⚡️EY, Wed Sep 13 12:18pm
              And a major lightning storm hit SF. It just came out of the blue. The reality is the techno terrorist had targeted a low over the area and set up a transmitter to create high pressure. The imbalance... more
            • going to hurt us in the long run. IMO the media spends so much effort HYPING every single storm trying to twist statistics to make EVERY storm seem like a storm of the century or something SPECIAL... more
              • What examples of "crying wolf".HeavyHemi, Tue Sep 12 3:32am
                The warnings are not based solely on it being a cat 5 but it's predicted path and many other factors. You're inventing an argument literally nobody would make. "the leadership, and the press, should... more
                • I can confidently say, in addition to what you've said, that they VERY CLEARLY stated, multiple times, that things can change on a DIME and that everything is based on the current pathways, that, as... more
                • It's a "confidence game"PH😵😵EY, Tue Sep 12 8:16am
                  The entire weather forecast apparati are in on the weather control scam. That is why a hurried gag order was placed on two public agencies and one department last year. NOAA, the National Weather... more
                  • Oh c'mon. That's pure nonsense. (nm)Sia☺giah, Tue Sep 12 7:55pm
                    • Not really PH💨💨EY, Thu Sep 14 9:45am
                      I suggest confidence game because at the same time these nuts do their experiments, and their reasonings for killing one storm while allowing others to morph, they must keep up the "natural" weather... more
                  • Your reply is utterly irrational nonsense.HeavyHemi, Tue Sep 12 4:23pm
                    Based on nothing but your fevered imagination. Recall my post over a week prior. Their long range models were very good. I have to assume you do this for the attention. Otherwise, you come off as a... more
                    • You are too kind. I mean that🙄PH🐀🐉EY, Tue Sep 12 9:26pm
                      And no, I do not recall your post. Raytheon does the national weather long range modeling. Given that that heinous Luciferian workshop is up to its eyeballs in weather control, one might want to at... more
                      • Fracking. (nm)Sia☺giah, Tue Sep 12 11:09pm
                        • They may go hand in glove.PH🎲🎲EY, Tue Sep 12 11:18pm
                          I have been reading the studies. On the other hand there are discrepancies in the studies that place the increased EQ on injection well practices. Further, if there the fault lines in Oklahoma are... more
          • Contrarian, don't be a boor.HeavyHemi, Mon Sep 11 12:29am
            There are going to be people killed.
            • Boor?PH🌪🌪EY, Mon Sep 11 7:24pm
              Ass would be more like it. 45,000 are killed and maimed on the nation highways. Each year! But hey, it's a product, a sale. I was simply saying Irma was a rather tame beast by the time it slapped... more
    • I hope not. My Dad is in NH at my house right nowSia☺giah, Thu Sep 7 11:40pm
      has been up here for almost 2 weeks now. He had originally planned on going home today, but came down sick on Monday and I canceled his tickets and booked him for next week, Friday, to be SURE he was ... more
      • Best remain a guest for a whilePikes, Fri Sep 8 3:32pm
        Even after Irma is done, aftermath will linger state-wide. Jose is on Irma's heels, and is itself chased by more depressions. X's cousin visited for a week. Sunday we took her up Pikes Peak by the... more
        • along the coastline. He & my Mom lived right on the Homosassa River for several years and got WALLOPED by Hurricane Andrew in '92. Since then, they moved inland about 20 miles to Beverly Hills in the ... more
          • XPikes, Sun Sep 10 10:29am
            It looks like Irma's core will remain off shore just west of Florida. most if not all the way up the peninsula. By keeping that over water, it will weaken very gradually, retaining hurricane force... more
      • Why us that hard to imagine?PH🌪🌪EY, Tue Sep 12 9:30pm
        Who drew it? Walt Disney? NOAA is in in the scam.
      • PSA
        • Coconut cannonballsPikes, Sun Sep 10 12:13pm
          Over the last decade or two, use of coconut palms in Florida landscaping became epidemic. They're cheap, grow fast, and look tropical. These will all provide "cannon balls" for the hurricane to use,... more
          • Pardon me for chuckling😊PH👁👁EY, Sun Sep 10 11:10pm
            And it brought back a memory from when I resided in a community north of San Francisco. Let's call it " Boca Raton." Lots of Florida type flora abounds. And this particular palm grows there like a... more
            • Redwood empire palmsPikes, Sun Sep 10 11:39pm
              Biggest palm I ever saw was a Jubaea chilensis on the Eel River across from US 101 near Garberville. Easy six foot diameter trunk, height about 80 feet, and a frond spread of about 70 feet. Lots of... more
              • The Palm cut down was also huge.PH🌴🌴EY, Mon Sep 11 12:11am
                When it hit the ground the entire neighborhood jumped. Bel Marin Keyes. You would swear it was a Florida suburban setting. It was too weird for me. Not natural at all. The people were odd. I was... more
                • Palms are heavyPikes, Mon Sep 11 12:10pm
                  They're not woody. In place of wood is waterlogged fiber. Tough. Many species are planted mature with a crane, and "hurricane cut," meaning all fronds are removed. The root grows to anchor the thing, ... more
                  • Mmm, that is a nice look.PH🌴🌴EY, Mon Sep 11 7:31pm
                    Well, you answered a question on my mind about cutting boards out of a palm. Probably tooo tough on equipment. Grind them up, add a adhesive and make something useful. Right now I would love to be... more
      • 1928 Okeechobee hurricane on similar pathPikes, Fri Sep 8 3:37pm Killed a lot of people.
    • Footage of aftermath in Saint MaartinEx-News Junkie, Wed Sep 6 5:30pm
      I've seen some wind-blown rain before, but this is a whole other level. I honestly didn't expect to see any buildings with roofs still attached. Even so, anyone who lives in the path of this storm is ... more
    • US-bound Hurricane Irma has gotten so strong that it is showing up on equipment designed to measure earthquakes. Stephen Hicks, a seismologist at the National Oceanography Centre Southampton, said... more
    • and expanding. This could be really bad for a lot of people depending upon the track...which I guess is reiterating the obvious.
      • Wish we could take some of the rain...Poppet, Wed Sep 6 1:41pm put out the damn fires. =(
        • I'd have happily loaned you some of mine....Sprout, Mon Sep 11 9:32am
          We ended up with a bit over 42 inches of rain... Including 26 inches in 24 hours. I'm just glad that it was WARM rain as opposed to that cold stuff that falls from the sky up north :)
          • Yeah, that sounded pretty awful.Poppet, Mon Sep 11 2:58pm
            I suppose you got off lighter than many. Hell of a lot of work, expense, and pain-in-the-ass factor, though...
            • Yeah... I'm OK...Sprout, Mon Sep 11 4:00pm
              Had to move a bunch of my stuff so that the drywall and kitchen can be gutted... And I'm helping gut my friends house who got a couple of feet of water as opposed to my couple of inches. I have a... more
              • You won't regret it.
                • It was a very comfortable bed. Fortunately I have some time to shop around to try and find just the right mattress to last me another while. With my back issues, I have no problem spending money no a ... more
              • Legit silver lining, I s'pose.Poppet, Tue Sep 12 1:10pm
                Nothing like a new bed! =) While things were nasty up here for a few days, I was personally never in any danger and neither were my properties. Nothing in the fire area (and I don't have breathing... more
                • Locked faults....Sprout, Tue Sep 12 5:28pm
                  From the (limited) reading I have done on the topic, it appears there are a number of faults along the west coast of the US that are believed to be long overdue for movement. Apparently some... more
                  • I have a handful of residential properties in Portland, and I'd been living in one in a neighborhood called King's Heights. As the name might imply, it's known for hillside views (and some really... more
                    • We all have our potential druthers.PH🔥🔥EY, Tue Sep 12 9:41pm
                      I live in a forest. On top of a ridge (4,000) feet. The last time it burned was in '29'. An old timer described it to me. Basically I reside on my potential funeral pyre given the "right" conditions. ... more
        • I've had to chase of so many arsehats...HeavyHemi, Wed Sep 6 11:32pm
          riding around on their ATV's and trail bikes...sans spark arresters...friggen morons. As you know in the great PNW, there's miles and miles of private forest land and access roads of varying quality. ... more
    • Defiinately not too early...HeavyHemi, Sun Sep 3 5:58pm
    • Models are already saying another Cat 4 — Jeeves, Thu Aug 31 3:25pm
      • You can always send in a requestPH🐉🐉EY, Tue Sep 12 10:05pm
        to Raytheon (ray of God). Just watch the highs and lows. Suggest they move that over here. And this over there. Defect the storm, push it a hard right. Look up Hurricane Erin off of NYC on 9-11. My... more