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Chase
Re: Huh?
Fri Feb 17, 2012 22:43
174.25.134.206

I recall that article from when it was published in August. Hard for me to say if the circumstances were the same with the television deal an unknown at that time.

Based on Center's chat today he mentioned a potential lawsuit from McCourt (against MLB) if the Padres were allowed to complete the purchase of the team using any of the upfront funds from the new Fox deal, like what he was trying to do only months ago. I buy that. Connecting the dots it seems like if the money isn't there to conclude the sale without using the upfront Fox money the sale will continue on its regular course with a conclusion prior to the 2014 season.

The median payroll is approaching 100m. The Padres not only just got a sizeable increase in TV money, but a ton of upfront money to boot. I bet they reach the 70m figure in the 2014 season. At that point no longer will they be allocating revenue towards finalizing the purchase, the payroll should increase again, talent permitting. I'm not expecting them to start signing 15-20m/yr free agents, but guys could be sought in trades that were previously not options. I fully expect them to take a smart approach when it comes to spending the money.

Take the next team north. They have a huge payroll, but so much of it is spent poorly. When guys like Upton & Bruce were getting their 6/50m contracts, Kemp was given no such guarantees. They wait, end up committing more than three times as much to keep him around past 2012, and in no way does "smart" come into the equation. He's a star, but paying him close to free agent wages could have been avoided. I've asked Dodger fans why Kershaw wasn't given a LT contract before 2011, and have yet to get a plausible explanation. I'm sure they'll keep Kershaw, that's not the question at all, it's just that they're going to pay a ton more then had they been pro-active. I think you can chalk that up to the mindset of the wealthy. It seems like no big payroll team has a better long-term mindset than Boston. They identify their core early, and they lock them up. There are exceptions (Ellsbury), but typically you can find other factors that likely came into pay (Boras).

To sum up, I'm glad neither LA or SF have the slightest resemblance to doing things as the Sox have. We'd be much more screwed if that were the case. It's going to be a lot more fun exploring trades for players who could be in line for an 8-figure salary, even if it's on the low-end.

The 2012 salary is set, yeah they could probably dangle some money Oswalts way right now if they get the deal finalized. 1/8m, 7m salary + 1m buyout on '13 mutual option, might not look so bad to Oswalt right now. Signing Oswalt, bumping Moseley to the pen and possibly sending both Owings & Bass to the minors would be a pretty drastic move. For next year things get much more interesting, or at the deadline if they're competing. Not many teams are in a position to take on 5m at that time, the Padres could just be.

Crazy how the Padres attendance fared to the AL clubs. 8 teams drew fewer fans then the last place Padres last year. The 2012 club gets off to a much better start and the attendance could grow momentum. I like how all the pieces are coming together. Even for as cash poor as Moorad is made out to be, I'm damn appreciative of their only being 7 teams that have spent more then the Padres in the past 3 drafts since him buying the team. Signing Whitson and/or Vanegas would have bumped them even higher (referring back to Depo's comment about over 5m left on the table to 3 HS picks).

Even though the Padres payroll has increased I don't think they improved any ground compared to the rest of baseball, pretty sure bottom 4 this year as well last. 2013 I don't think that will be the case. Don't shoot me if I'm wrong please! By all means the 2013 team should be young with guys like Grandal, Gyorko, Erlin, Kelly & Wieland being key pieces.

Planning on writing about my current thinking in long-term extension candidates for the Padres. Part foresight, part potential doom. With the financial picture looking *rosier*, it's worth revisiting as these next several weeks are opportune times to sign a few guys. Stay tuned.

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  • Huh?Wahoo Willy, Mon Feb 13 20:33
    So, I give Tom Krasovic all the credit in the world for staying on the local teams beat. And in a lot of cases, adding a lot more depth and critical analysis than he was able to while working at the... more
    • Re: Huh?jst25, Tue Feb 14 21:05
      I think he is trying to say that Moorad, Moores and Selig are working to a compromise that isn't exactly going to make Moores or Moorad happy, but will end up with Moorad getting the team. He's... more
      • Re: Huh?Wahoo Willy, Wed Feb 15 12:24
        Ok, good. I'm not going nuts. Just a weird tense or tone to the whole thing. Like he's letting you on something, only he never says what it is. And conflating the ownership transfer with the TV deal... more
        • Re: Huh?batpig, Wed Feb 15 17:11
          the equity angle is actually new to me, and a very interesting potential source of revenue beyond the rights fee. I'm glad I was right ($15m > $30m) on the rights fee details... since you mention the ... more
          • Re: Huh?Wahoo Willy, Wed Feb 15 19:51
            Okay. Just listened to the Saw. Pretty consistent with what Krasovic was reporting as well - sounds like they both probably got it from Nightengale. And it does sound like a great deal for the Pads.... more
            • Re: Huh?Chase, Thu Feb 16 11:54
              Article up on MLB.com with Moores saying it's a 20yr/1B deal. With the Padres getting an expected 200m upfront. It gets really interesting when you think what they could do with the 150-200m if it... more
              • Re: Huh?jst25, Fri Feb 17 19:28
                According to Center, the money has been spent in form of Carlos Quentin. As much as we'd like to see this TV contract as a new source of revenue, it has apparently been counted on and earmarked as... more
                • Re: Huh? — Chase, Fri Feb 17 22:43
                  • Re: Huh?jst25, Sat Feb 18 23:34
                    According to Krasovic, they have been working on this TV deal for a year. Regardless, the details may not have been known in August, but Moorad probably had a pretty good idea of what was coming when ... more
                    • Re: Huh?Chase, Sun Feb 19 05:14
                      Not increasing the payroll over 70m any time soon means staying in the bottom five in basball. They will be there in 2012, and 2013 has a chance of being the same, but I'm not seeing that come 2014.... more
                      • Having a middle range revenue is NOT going to show up in a middle range of payroll when it comes to the Padres. Realistically, they have more ballpark debt than almost anyone else right now, so it... more
                        • Besides that, what happens to us when everybody else negotiates their new deals? I don't know when the other NL West contracts run out, but this bump seems to have a limited shelf life. Five years... more
                          • Looking at where the padres have ranked payroll wise since '98, I just wonder why the days of being 17th or 20th in that department are a thing of the past? Would anyone really be surprised if that's ... more
                            • Things Are BetterMark, Sun Feb 19 22:30
                              Sure things are better. Where is the box office draw? Why should I come out to the park if I live in North County as opposed to going to Anaheim? Can you really assume they are back over 3M in... more
                              • butts in the seatsChase, Mon Feb 20 01:49
                                3m in attendance? Wow, I wouldn't even want to guess how long it will be until that achieve that again. For comparisson, only 9 teams in the entire game reached that figure last year. I believe the... more
                                • Re: butts in the seatsMcBain, Mon Feb 20 09:56
                                  Just so we're clear, I'm only really worried about our relative spending power vis-a-vis the NL West. If we look at NL payrolls after the TV deals stabilize, I'd bet that 75% of the time or more we'd ... more
                                  • Re: butts in the seatsAnonymous, Mon Feb 20 13:42
                                    "If we look at NL payrolls after the TV deals stabilize, I'd bet that 75% of the time or more we'd be last. The new deal really doesn't change much for the medium- and long-term." The Padres weren't... more
                                    • Forgot a WMcBain, Mon Feb 20 15:22
                                      That was supposed to NLW payrolls. After everybody negotiates their TV deals, it's safe to assume we'll be last in media revenue. Who are we going to outdraw — or outdraw by enough to make a serious... more
                                      • It's Not Even CloseMark, Tue Feb 21 13:39
                                        LA and SF are so above and beyond the rest of the division in terms of potential spending power, it isn't even close. We all talk about how a new owner in SD should mean an increase in... more
                                        • Re: It's Not Even CloseWahoo Willy, Tue Feb 21 14:45
                                          Yeah. From a revenue perspective, the way MLB is set up just isn't sustainable. Revenue sharing does a pretty good job of keeping the Padres and smaller market teams from getting totally shut out... more
                                        • Re: It's Not Even CloseChase, Tue Feb 21 14:09
                                          Agree on where the Padres stand in the NL West, though by saying they have much of a disadvantage over the likes of Arizona & Colorado is splitting hairs, based on how those teams are spending. Don't ... more
        • Bay Area beerJungleMan, Wed Feb 15 12:45
          I'm still up for it. I was originally thinking a televised ST game, but who knows if that will happen. How about during first weekend of March madness?
          • Re: Bay Area beerWahoo Willy, Wed Feb 15 15:47
            I'm actually out of town that weekend - pushing my luck I realize. But yeah, trying to match it up with a spring training game would work. Maybe the always exciting play-in games? March 13?
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