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Chase
butts in the seats
Mon Feb 20, 2012 01:49
174.25.134.206

3m in attendance? Wow, I wouldn't even want to guess how long it will be until that achieve that again. For comparisson, only 9 teams in the entire game reached that figure last year. I believe the Padres were 17th last year, to go with a bottom four payroll. If the circumstances of the purchase of the team were not in the picture I would imagine everyone and their mother would be asking why such a low payroll? Particularly after seeing the TV revenue double.

These next two years represent the end of our current cycle. Maybe Moorad purchases the team early, but I'm just going to assume that isn' the case, because really that's all we can do. If the club is 15th in attendance in 2014 and bottom-five in payroll, the same excuse (paying off the team) won't be their to justify the allocation of the money.

Of course middle revenue doesn't mean middle payroll in every circumstance, though to be in the neighborhood while consistently sporting bottom-5 payroll's won't make Moorad look good, and boy I can already imagine the dark columns castrating him.

“Our goal is not to make money,” Moorad said. “Our goal is to break even. Even if we sell the ballpark out and have a new broadcast contract and are able to sell more expensive seats at some point, every dollar that we are able to generate over and above expenses will go right back into the facility or the major league payroll…"

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2011/apr/01/forbes-figures-padres-may-need-recalculation/?page=2#article

Isn't there a problem if you think the A's will likely stay ahead of the Padres in the immediate future considering they drew 700k fewer fans then SD last year? That's not directed at you, but big picture. How are we in the same boat other than having to fund the sale? How will the conclusion of the sale alter how things are compared to now? Talent wise, I think the Padres are on the cusp of a nice upswing with the players on hand. Talent always wins right? They field a winner, more fans will come. 2.4m would have been good for 14th best in the game in 2011 and I'm hoping that reach that point during the next two years.

Here's the 2011 attendance numbers for the teams your willing to bet staying above SD in payroll in the immediate future:

SD - 2.14m
TB - 1.53m
KC - 1.72m
PIT - 1.94m
Cle - 1.84m
FLA - 1.52m
Tor - 1.81m
Oak - 1.48m
Arz - 2.11m

Yes, the Padres out-drew every single one of those clubs, even the first place D-backs, though it was close. Shouldn't they be able to outspend atleast five of those clubs come 2014? More fans, added TV revenue, yet still spend less?? Doesn't add up to me.


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  • Huh?Wahoo Willy, Mon Feb 13 20:33
    So, I give Tom Krasovic all the credit in the world for staying on the local teams beat. And in a lot of cases, adding a lot more depth and critical analysis than he was able to while working at the... more
    • Re: Huh?jst25, Tue Feb 14 21:05
      I think he is trying to say that Moorad, Moores and Selig are working to a compromise that isn't exactly going to make Moores or Moorad happy, but will end up with Moorad getting the team. He's... more
      • Re: Huh?Wahoo Willy, Wed Feb 15 12:24
        Ok, good. I'm not going nuts. Just a weird tense or tone to the whole thing. Like he's letting you on something, only he never says what it is. And conflating the ownership transfer with the TV deal... more
        • Re: Huh?batpig, Wed Feb 15 17:11
          the equity angle is actually new to me, and a very interesting potential source of revenue beyond the rights fee. I'm glad I was right ($15m > $30m) on the rights fee details... since you mention the ... more
          • Re: Huh?Wahoo Willy, Wed Feb 15 19:51
            Okay. Just listened to the Saw. Pretty consistent with what Krasovic was reporting as well - sounds like they both probably got it from Nightengale. And it does sound like a great deal for the Pads.... more
            • Re: Huh?Chase, Thu Feb 16 11:54
              Article up on MLB.com with Moores saying it's a 20yr/1B deal. With the Padres getting an expected 200m upfront. It gets really interesting when you think what they could do with the 150-200m if it... more
              • Re: Huh?jst25, Fri Feb 17 19:28
                According to Center, the money has been spent in form of Carlos Quentin. As much as we'd like to see this TV contract as a new source of revenue, it has apparently been counted on and earmarked as... more
                • Re: Huh?Chase, Fri Feb 17 22:43
                  I recall that article from when it was published in August. Hard for me to say if the circumstances were the same with the television deal an unknown at that time. Based on Center's chat today he... more
                  • Re: Huh?jst25, Sat Feb 18 23:34
                    According to Krasovic, they have been working on this TV deal for a year. Regardless, the details may not have been known in August, but Moorad probably had a pretty good idea of what was coming when ... more
                    • Re: Huh?Chase, Sun Feb 19 05:14
                      Not increasing the payroll over 70m any time soon means staying in the bottom five in basball. They will be there in 2012, and 2013 has a chance of being the same, but I'm not seeing that come 2014.... more
                      • Having a middle range revenue is NOT going to show up in a middle range of payroll when it comes to the Padres. Realistically, they have more ballpark debt than almost anyone else right now, so it... more
                        • Besides that, what happens to us when everybody else negotiates their new deals? I don't know when the other NL West contracts run out, but this bump seems to have a limited shelf life. Five years... more
                          • Looking at where the padres have ranked payroll wise since '98, I just wonder why the days of being 17th or 20th in that department are a thing of the past? Would anyone really be surprised if that's ... more
                            • Things Are BetterMark, Sun Feb 19 22:30
                              Sure things are better. Where is the box office draw? Why should I come out to the park if I live in North County as opposed to going to Anaheim? Can you really assume they are back over 3M in... more
                              • butts in the seats — Chase, Mon Feb 20 01:49
                                • Re: butts in the seatsMcBain, Mon Feb 20 09:56
                                  Just so we're clear, I'm only really worried about our relative spending power vis-a-vis the NL West. If we look at NL payrolls after the TV deals stabilize, I'd bet that 75% of the time or more we'd ... more
                                  • Re: butts in the seatsAnonymous, Mon Feb 20 13:42
                                    "If we look at NL payrolls after the TV deals stabilize, I'd bet that 75% of the time or more we'd be last. The new deal really doesn't change much for the medium- and long-term." The Padres weren't... more
                                    • Forgot a WMcBain, Mon Feb 20 15:22
                                      That was supposed to NLW payrolls. After everybody negotiates their TV deals, it's safe to assume we'll be last in media revenue. Who are we going to outdraw — or outdraw by enough to make a serious... more
                                      • It's Not Even CloseMark, Tue Feb 21 13:39
                                        LA and SF are so above and beyond the rest of the division in terms of potential spending power, it isn't even close. We all talk about how a new owner in SD should mean an increase in... more
                                        • Re: It's Not Even CloseWahoo Willy, Tue Feb 21 14:45
                                          Yeah. From a revenue perspective, the way MLB is set up just isn't sustainable. Revenue sharing does a pretty good job of keeping the Padres and smaller market teams from getting totally shut out... more
                                        • Re: It's Not Even CloseChase, Tue Feb 21 14:09
                                          Agree on where the Padres stand in the NL West, though by saying they have much of a disadvantage over the likes of Arizona & Colorado is splitting hairs, based on how those teams are spending. Don't ... more
        • Bay Area beerJungleMan, Wed Feb 15 12:45
          I'm still up for it. I was originally thinking a televised ST game, but who knows if that will happen. How about during first weekend of March madness?
          • Re: Bay Area beerWahoo Willy, Wed Feb 15 15:47
            I'm actually out of town that weekend - pushing my luck I realize. But yeah, trying to match it up with a spring training game would work. Maybe the always exciting play-in games? March 13?
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