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SAMPALOC
The MAGUINDANAO ELECTION RESULTS
Fri Jul 6, 2007 20:57
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Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results
Posted by: Avigail Olarte on 3 July 2007 at 12:10 am, Inside PCIJ.

AS always, the devil is in the numbers.

More than six weeks after the May 14 elections, the controversy surrounding the Maguindanao elections has yet to be resolved. It all started with the supposed 12-0 shutout win of administration candidates in the province. This was followed by news of provincial elections supervisor Lintang Bedol saying that municipal certificates of canvass (MCoCs) were stolen, only to backtrack later by saying they were simply missing. Bedol himself went “missing” twice despite repeated summons from the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

Following the news of allegations of massive cheating in the
province, the poll body ordered a recanvass of the results. The special body created to conduct the canvass had to resort to the second and fourth copies of MCoCs. The recanvassing of votes cast in the 22 towns resulted into a total of 195,823 votes for Team Unity candidate Juan Miguel Zubiri, and 67,111 for Genuine Opposition bet Aquilino Pimentel III.

While Pimentel remains ahead of the race, the latest tally today shows that Pimentel now only has a slim lead of 2,700. He earlier had a lead of 4,293; prior to the canvass, Pimentel was leading by 111,000. The results from Basilan, Zamboanga del Sur, Lanao del Sur and towns Binan, Laguna and Bogo, Cebu will determine the 12th winning senator.

In Maguindanao, a look at the election results there reveals highly improbable figures and surprisingly high voter turnout.

Comparing the results from the “original” provincial certificate of canvass " which was set aside by the national board of canvassers " with the new set of documents shows unusual decreases and increases in the votes for certain senatorial candidates (see table).

MAGUINDANAO SENATORIAL ELECTION RESULTS
CANDIDATE
NO. OF VOTES CAST
(in original Provincial CoC)
NO. OF VOTES CAST
(in new Provincial CoC)
VOTES ADDED (+)/
SUBTRACTED (-)
% SHARE OF TOTAL VOTES CAST
Angara, Edgardo (TU)
195,171
195,990
+819
100.31%
Aquino, Benigno Simeon III (GO)
0
0
-
0.00%
Arroyo, Joker (TU)
194,803
193,012
-1,791
98.78%
Bautista Martin (AK)
0
0
-
0.00%
Cantal, Felix (PGRP)
0
0
-
0.00%
Cayetano, Alan Peter (GO)
0
0
-
0.00%
Cayetano, Joselito (KBL)
0
0
-
0.00%
Chavez, Melchor (KBL)
0
0
-
0.00%
Coseteng, Anna Dominique (GO)
0
0
-
0.00%
Defensor, Michael (TU)
194,028
168,905
-25,123
86.45%
Enciso, Ruben (KBL)
0
0
-
0.00%
Escudero, Francis Joseph (GO)
85,037
81,171
-3,866
41.54%
Estrella, Antonio (KBL)
0
0
-
0.00%
Gomez, Richard (IND)
0
0
-
0.00%
Honasan, Gregorio (IND)
69,613
64,978
-4,635
33.26%
Kiram III, Jamalul (TU)
86,122
86,122
-
44.08%
Lacson, Panfilo (GO)
0
0
-
0.00%
Legarda, Loren (GO)
70,138
64,070
-6,068
32.79%
Lozano, Oliver (KBL)
0
0
-
0.00%
Magsaysay, Vicente (TU)
87,236
85,822
-1,414
43.92%
Montano, Cesar (TU)
88,751
86,305
-2,446
44.17%
Oreta, Teresa (TU)
87,053
83,076
-3,977
42.52%
Orpilla, Eduardo (KBL)
0
0
-
0.00%
Osmeña, John Henry (GO)
0
0
-
0.00%
Pangilinan, Francis (IND)
52,355
50,068
-2,287
25.62%
Paredes, Zosimo Jesus II (AK)
0
0
-
0.00%
Pichay, Prospero Jr (TU)
194,571
193,979
-592
99.28%
Pimentel, Aquilino III (GO)
67,057
67,111
+54
34.35%
Recto, Ralph (TU)
195,454
190,654
-4,800
97.58%
Roco, Sonia (GO)
0
0
-
0.00%
Singson, Luis (TU)
196,157
194,242
-1,915
99.41%
Sison, Adrian (AK)
0
0
-
0.00%
Sotto, Vicente III (TU)
195,575
184,556
-11,019
94.46%
Trillanes, Antonio IV (GO)
0
2,147
+2,147
1.10%
Villar, Manuel Jr (GO)
82,735
73,835
-8,900
37.79%
Wood, Victor (KBL)
0
0
-
0.00%
Zubiri, Juan Miguel (TU)
195,823
195,823
-
100.22%

For example, the first set recorded a total of 194,028 for TU candidate Michael Defensor. After the second round of canvassing, his votes were reduced by as much as 25,123. Detained rebel leader Antonio Trillanes IV, who first got a “zero” vote suddenly got 2,147 votes. All the other zero votes remained unchanged in the final tally. The Supreme Court in 1966 declared a zero vote as statistically improbable.

Meanwhile, Pimentels votes increased by 54 from the first
provincial CoC while that of Zubiris remained at 195,823. Comelec explained this large discrepancies by saying that election officers might have gotten it wrong the first time.

The table above also shows extremely high vote-percentage shares for TU candidates " Edgardo Angara (100.31 percent), Zubiri (100.22 percent), Luis Singson (99.41 percent), Prospero Pichay (99.28 percent), Joker Arroyo (98.78 percent), and Ralph Recto (97.58 percent).

Another pattern in the results in Maguindanao is the unusually high voter turnouts in all the towns, averaging at 94 percent. The highest turnout was in Datu Unsay (99.78 percent), followed by Talayan (99.06 percent) and Datu Anggal Midtimbang (98.84 percent).

MAGUINDANAO ELECTION RESULTS
MUNICIPALITY
NO. OF REGISTERED VOTERS
(Comelec May 3 Memo)
NO. OF REGISTERED VOTERS
(as read by MBOC)
NO. OF REGISTERED VOTERS WHO ACTUALLY VOTED
VOTER TURNOUT (%)
Ampatuan
10,658
10,613
9,958
93.83%
Buluan
10,118
10,118
9,649
95.36%
Datu Abdullah Sangki
8,186
8,186
7,939
96.98%
Datu Anggal Midtimbang
5,275
5,273
5,212
98.84%
Datu Paglas
12,126
12,126
11,608
95.73%
Datu Piang
18,492
18,492
17,933
96.98%
Datu Saudi Ampatuan
11,747
11,747
11,402
97.06%
Datu Unsay
10,172
10,172
10,150
99.78%
Gen. S.K. Pendatun
11,019
10,999
10,664
96.95%
Guindulungan
4,832
4,830
4,574
94.70%
Mamasapano
10,689
10,686
10,686*
100.00%
Mangundadatu
4,683
4,683
4,492
95.92%
Pagagawan
10,578
10,578**
10,578*
100.00%
Paglat
4,682
4,682
4,313
92.12%
Pagalungan
10,484
2,837
2,439
85.97%
Pandag
3,650
3,650
3,342
91.56%
Rajah Buayan
6,815
6,815
6,672
97.90%
Shariff Aguak
27,392
27,386
26,701
97.50%
South Upi
12,272
12,272
9,461
77.09%
Sultan sa Barongis
8,632
8,632
7,755
89.84%
Talayan
6,567
6,567
6,505
99.06%
Talitay
4,122
4,121
3,357
81.46%
TOTAL
213,191
205,645
195,390
94.30%
* No data, 100% voter turnout assumed
** No data, number of voters assumed to be the same as provided by
Comelec May 3 memo

The results for Zubiri alone, according to Pimentels lawyers, is statistically improbable. The total number of voters for Maguindanao was 195,390, this even with assumed 100-percent voter turnout in two municipalities, where data have yet to be gathered. Zubiri is vote harvest totaled 195,823 for a difference of 433 votes.Moreover, in the old PCoC, Singson had the highest number of votes. But in the new tally, Zubiri emerged number one. “The first was unbelievable, the
second simply magic, Pimentels lawyers said.

In 2004, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo had the same statistically
improbable number of votes obtained in Maguindanao. In at least two towns, Arroyos votes even equaled the number of actual voters, 9,321 in Ampatuan and 17,250 in Datu Piang. In both towns, as in many places in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), the opposition's highly popular candidate, Fernando Poe Jr., failed to garner a single vote.
Pimentel has his hopes pinned on the High Tribunal, which had given him 10 days to file his motion for reconsideration after it denied his petition to stop the Maguindanao recanvassing. The Supreme Court ruled that the Pimentel failed to prove that votes counted by the Comelec were spurious.

Members of the opposition earlier protested the inclusion of the results in Maguindanao in the overall count following fraud allegations. Zubiri meanwhile wanted the votes in the province included, saying that not doing so would disenfranchise its voters.
(See related posts here and here.)

 2007 elections, electoral fraud, lintang bedol, maguindanao


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